The 2024 Development Landscape
2023 was a tumultuous year in international development marked by escalating conflict and climate disasters. The UK has responded with breadth and speed, and 2024, the Year of Elections, presents a significant opportunity for the UK to navigate geopolitical challenges strategically. In this overview, CGP provides insights into critical global events expected to shape the international development landscape. With 4 billion people casting votes worldwide, elections will have profound implications for the United Kingdom’s development policy.
DAVOS 2024: ‘Rebuilding Trust’
The 54th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in 2024, taking place in Davos, is dedicated to rebuilding trust by bringing together top political and business leaders to address global security and cooperation amongst key stakeholders. Following the UK’s AI Safety Summit in 2023, discussions of AI’s capacity to mitigate global challenges in climate change and food security will mark significance for the UK’s AI for Development program. The UK’s commitment to leading AI innovation will present opportunities to advance global safety for electoral processes and democracy in 2024.
The 60th Munich Security Conference
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated as top priority in 2023’s Munich Security Conference. The ever-evolving landscape of the MSC debating international security policy has seen stronger inclusion of the Global South in recent years. However, breakdown of international order in recent conflicts saw Russia and Iran banned from last year's conference.
Pressing security challenges in the Middle East such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, addressing Iran-backed Houthi disruptions to global supply chains and maritime security are expected to be prominent for 2024’s forum. The escalation of threats places Britain's defence and diplomacy as vital in development agendas to mitigate global security risks. Additionally, the MSC hosted several events at last year’s COP28, as climate risks are exacerbating, discussions on climate and security can be expected as top priorities to shed light on climate mitigation solutions amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
March Elections: Ukraine, Iran, Russia
Simultaneous general elections in Ukraine, Russia and Iran within a single month presents a remarkable and complex diplomatic scenario, introducing challenges to geopolitical security. For the UK, Ukraine continues to be a top foreign policy priority through 2023/24 as part of efforts to ensure security and upholding the territorial integrity of sovereign nations.
UK-African Investment Summit: Fostering Economic Partnership
The UK-African Investment Summit in April is a key event to bolster economic partnerships between the UK and African nations, to build mutually beneficial partnerships for long-term development. As key investors in Africa, UK-AIS 2024 presents a great opportunity for the UK to influence finance and technology sectors as an opportunity to expand British leadership capabilities across the international landscape.
Shaping Global priorities: UK leadership in Politics, Education and Health
The United Kingdom is set to showcase its leadership expertise on the global stage in 2024, playing a pivotal role as hosts of the 4th European Political Community Summit. This event provides an important platform for meaningful engagement with European partners but also serves as a unique opportunity to bolster cooperation on key British foreign policy concerns.
Additionally, the UK will reaffirm its status as a global leader in education with the annual Education World Forum. As education is a vital component of the UK’s influence on the world stage, this gathering enhances the UK’s soft power advantage in shaping discourse on international education.
The 77th World Health Assembly will also be taking place with an expected draft of the Pandemic Preparedness Treaty by member states. Spanning across leadership positions in political, education and health milestones are important for strengthening the UK’s international development strategies and interests.
2024 G7 Summit
The 50th G7 Summit will be held in Puglia, Italy. The Italian presidency will prioritise a focus on upholding international law with a focus on Ukraine as well as economic and energy security, migration, cooperation with Africa and strengthening unity between G7 members. The engagement with Africa seeks to build a cooperation model with developing nations as part of mutually beneficial partnerships strengthening ties between the Global North and South. The UK White Paper focus on “partnership principles” will hold great relevance in this year's G7 Summit which encourages North-South collaborations as part of expanding international development efforts.
The 75th Anniversary of NATO
Commemorating the 75th Anniversary of NATO, hosted in Washington DC, the summit is expected to focus on strengthening alliances, particularly amid intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia. The growing significance of NATO sits amongst the backdrop of Turkey’s disputes over Sweden’s membership and partisan divisions for NATO support in the US. With elections world wide and changes to political leadership amongst several NATO members, new priorities and perspectives can be expected to influence military alliances and sustained commitments to NATO.
CHOGM: ‘One Resilient Common Future: Transforming our Common Wealth’
The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) held in Samoa will mark a historic occasion as the first Heads of Government Meeting with His Majesty King Charles III as Head of the Commonwealth following the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. It is likely that this meeting will have a renewed focus on addressing global economic, environmental, and security challenges. The meeting aims to unite Commonwealth nations in collaborative efforts towards a more sustainable and cohesive future.
UK General Elections
UK elections matter for shaping Britain’s foreign policy and power on the world stage. While the pre-election period emphasises domestic concerns, their interconnectedness is apparent in times of international crises and conflict that directly impacts the UK’s national security. Take for instance, the pressing issue of migration in UK politics. It resonates on a domestic level, raising concerns within the UK, whilst also influencing diplomatic relations. It is expected to be a prominent theme in shaping election outcomes as the topic of migration plays a focal point in shaping the UK’s national security and diplomatic engagements.
The recent extension of the right to vote to 3.5 million Brits living overseas adds a new dimension to electoral dynamics. Diverging views between Labour and the Conservative on EU relations can be expected to draw attention to the foreign policy proposals in party manifestos.
Although there has been minimal differentiation between the parties on the Israel-Hamas conflict thus far, public opinion remains polarised. This may influence voter’s party allegiance given the substantial pro-Palestine sentiment amongst the Labour party. The intertwining of these divergent views with broader discussions on the links between domestic and foreign policy has implications for UK elections and strategic differences in preferences for military versus humanitarian aid shaping British foreign policy post-elections.
UK’s Global AI Safety Summit
The first-ever Global AI safety summit, led by the UK setting itself as a global leader in AI governance and regulation marked a cornerstone in international governance in 2023. The UK’s innovative approach to AI safety spans from diplomatic cooperation with allies and development partners, safeguarding models and potential for the UK’s AI for Development program to address global challenges. Although Chinese presence at the summit following the UK’s invitation has not been addressed, 2024’s follow up AI summit in South Korea co-hosted by the UK will be important for strengthening the UK’s influence in international cooperation.
US Presidential Elections
UK and US elections coinciding in 2024, provides a unique opportunity to shape a cohesive strategic approach to foreign policy. Existing splits in US foreign policy sets the stage for challenges to global stability with a highly likely Biden-Trump rematch election.
The Democrats and Republicans diverge on crucial global issues such as attitudes towards supporting Ukraine, strategic rivalry with China, NATO and climate action. US election outcomes are expected to have a decisive impact on global development strategies. For the UK it will offer a strategic opening to expand partnerships and potentially strengthen the transatlantic alliance.
COP29: UK as a Strong Climate Champion
Climate remains a priority across international development landscapes. UK development goals are spearheaded by climate priorities for the Net Zero Strategy that are influencing proposals for climate adaptation and mitigation. The importance of negotiations and new agreements on global climate policies at COP29 is crucial for progress. In the lead up, by leveraging its influence, the UK’s role as a strong climate champion presents an opportunity to engage diplomatically and facilitate meaningul dialogue to steer global efforts towards sustainable and resilient solutions to climate change.
G20 Summit: Building a Just World and Sustainable Planet
2024’s G20 Summit will focus on 3 core priorities: social inclusion and world hunger, sustainable development, and global governance reforms under the theme of Building a Just World and Sustainable Planet. There is much opportunity for the UK to widen its global partnerships as Brazil strongly advocated for the African Union to be a permanent member of the G20. The rise of Global South voices in the G20 is a cornerstone for international development, although there are expected to be some challenges in reaching a unified consensus on economic agreements.
2024 will be a year of dynamic change for international development. The UK faces a pivotal year in shaping its foreign policy amidst the backdrop of key global events. As election outcomes unfold worldwide, shifting geopolitical landscapes present unique opportunities to forge new partnerships and amplify the UK’s international influence.
