Polling the aid budget: the way the UK does aid is different, so shouldn’t we ask different questions?
The latest findings from the Development Engagement Lab (DEL) poll offers an optimistic story regarding the UK's aid budget, something that historically has been a hard sell to the general public. While the movement towards warmer attitudes to the aid budget is encouraging, it may be somewhat exaggerated. The increase of +1% since October 2023 in those believing the UK should give aid does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend or a statistically significant shift in public opinion, especially considering the looming spectre of a general election, where other priorities – such as the economy, health and immigration – are coming into much sharper focus.
Yet, if we scratch beyond the surface, there is another interesting story to tell. Rather than a simple endorsement of an effective aid budget, the poll reflects a more nuanced narrative of shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving public perceptions on the efficacy of aid.
The global landscape is changing, and the public is aware: 80% acknowledge the world's heightened dangers, with 53% (+3%) concerned about poverty in developing nations. Why, then, do less than half (42%) think that we should give aid at all? Why do only 1 in 3 (33%) say they have trust in development NGOs and charities? And, perhaps most damningly, why do only 21% think development aid is effective?
At the heart of these discrepancies lies an important question: what exactly do we mean by aid? In an era where foreign policy is far more integrated, humanitarian and economic, development and defence assistance is often intertwined and overlapping. So, what are we asking the public to support when we ask about the aid budget?
During the Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine this January, a further £18 million in aid for Ukraine was announced, building on £340 million already provided. Some of the funding supports organisations like the UN and the Red Cross, £8 million was dedicated to fortifying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with further military spending for equipment such as drones. Yet, public support remains consistently high. 69% said they support maintaining or increasing UK support to Ukraine in a YouGov poll last June – a year and a half after the invasion.
And clearly support for Ukraine is beyond the total bill of £12 billion in support from the UK. In March 2022, YouGov found that 76% were in favour of resettling Ukrainian refugees in the UK, while many have been willing to bear some of the burden themselves: a Sky News poll showed that initially, 73% backed economic sanctions on Russia, even if it led to higher costs of energy. While the willingness to accept further personal economic burden has fluctuated as the war continues, support for sanctions remained high: in June 2023, 73% supported further economic sanctions being placed on Russia.
Indeed, the situation in Ukraine reflects the global trend of increased insecurity, of which the UK public is keenly aware. As shown by the support for Ukraine, it is possible that isolating the humanitarian aid budget from development, economic and military assistance does not reflect broader opinions. This also reflects shifts within development and foreign policy, which is increasingly favouring a comprehensive and integrated approach. Polling should reflect this.
Another significant change in the approach to aid relates to climate change. In recent years, the narrative around support for developing countries to adapt and mitigate climate threats has changed markedly. Since COP26, the British public has seen a greater role for the UK to support developing countries to respond to climate disasters, support adaptation efforts and facilitate the energy transition.
UK foreign policy identifies global climate change as a significant threat to its interests, and believes an integrated and comprehensive approach is required. One small example of this are the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), which were first launched in Glasgow during COP26. They establish a clear moral and political imperative to support developing countries while aligning with the UK’s security, trade and humanitarian goals. While specific mechanisms such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships are clearly not top of mind for most, the idea that developed countries should help developing countries to adapt is becoming the norm. A 2022 poll shows G7 citizens largely think that poor countries will feel the worst effects of climate change, with 67% agreeing that richer countries need to bear a larger part of the cost.
Increased climate threats and global insecurity are two important drivers for changing the way the UK does aid, and has also changed the way the public think about aid too. While the aid budget may never be a top priority for the majority of the public or a decisive factor in elections, grasping the nuances of public sentiment remains integral to the democratic process. Opinion polling is a valuable tool in this endeavour, provided it reflects the changing dynamics of aid delivery and public response effectively.