The Foreign Policy Challenges Facing The Next Prime Minister

Author: Ryan Baldry, Senior Communications Manager

Throughout the contest to choose the next UK Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party, there has been an absence of debate on the UK’s foreign policy challenges.

The next Prime Minister will be taking office at a time when the global picture is far from stable and the battle for ideas and influence will continue to dominate the agenda.

So what are some of the biggest challenges facing the next Prime Minister?

Ukraine and Russia

The ongoing war in Ukraine will continue to dominate the global agenda. There will be increased pressure for the next Prime Minister to continue the UK’s incredible level of support whilst discussion will begin to look at how we help Ukraine rebuild.

The UK has pledged to hold the next Conference on Ukrainian Reconstruction which will provide an opportunity for the new PM to demonstrate their commitment to Ukraine. A key element of reconstruction will have to focus on demining and removing unexploded ordnance in order to allow the recovery to take place safely.

Alongside any recovery, there must also be a focus on continuing support for those who have been displaced by conflict. Human trafficking continues to be a significant issue that aims to take advantage of the most vulnerable seeking shelter so must urgently be addressed.

However, there will be an increased focus on how the UK and NATO allies work with an increasingly hostile and unpredictable Russia. With global forums such as the G20 and United Nations still including Russia, there will be new challenges for the Prime Minister on whether to cast Russia aside or work with Moscow where possible.

Afghanistan

Although Afghanistan is no longer in the spotlight, the crises facing the country show no sign of improving. Following the takeover by the Taliban, human rights have very quickly become an area of great concern - specifically with the education of women and girls.

The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate - a problem that was only made worse by a 5.6 magnitude earthquake which struck in July.

When these crises are combined with high inflation, unemployment and poor human rights, the next Prime Minister will have to deal with continued flows of people seeking asylum as well as those who remain in Afghanistan and require increasingly urgent humanitarian assistance.

Global Health

Although many countries have successfully rolled out vaccines and boosters, COVID remains a significant issue for many in the Global South where vaccine infrastructure and procurement were not as effective as other countries. If vaccines and boosters are not shared equally then it is likely that stronger variants of the virus could emerge which would pose a risk to us all. 

Alongside COVID, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recently declared Monkeypox as a Global Health Emergency with 16,000 cases of monkeypox detected in more than 75 countries, and five deaths in Africa. The issue of vaccine distribution and sharing will be raised again in an effort to limit the spread as well as ensuring a level of awareness in the most vulnerable communities.

China

The influence of China on the world stage cannot be overstated. The next Prime Minister will have to look at how the UK can continue to be a force for good on the world stage in a way that counters the growing influence of China - especially in Africa.

There will be pressure for the UK to distance itself from China by working closer with democratic states to invest in key infrastructure and trading relationships. Questions about human rights in China will also continue to be present should the next Prime Minister look to create any closer ties with China. 

International Forums

Working in global forums was already going to be challenging with the inclusion of Russia in many key groups, but there will be other issues for the next Prime Minister to face. Russia and China will be actively working to stack global forums in their favour or work with their allies to create new structures and partnerships. The UK’s presidency of the G7 saw a push towards the inclusion of more democratic states so it is likely that this would continue - specifically a focus on the Indo-Pacific where states like Australia are in a key position to help counter the rise of China.

The election to become the next Prime Minister has rightly focused on domestic issues such as cost of living and taxation. But it is the international stage where candidates will want to make their mark and set out their vision for the UK as a force for good on the world stage. With an increasingly uncertain picture, this will not be a simple task.