Is it too late to stop Jordan running out of water?

Despite neighbouring the immensely wealthy Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan’s unemployment is at 25%, it is struggling to support the 1.5 million refugees who fled to the country in the early stages of the Syrian conflict and it has limited natural resources.

It is this third point that is critical to the country’s future, because Jordan is one of the most water scarce countries in the world. Annual renewable water resources are less than 100 m3 per person, significantly below the threshold of 500 m3 per person which defines water scarcity.

The issue has been brought into sharper focus in recent years due to rapid population growth (Syrian refugees constitute a third of Jordan’s population), an increase in regional tensions preventing infrastructure projects being delivered, and over abstraction, caused in part by illegal wells that are supporting a growing trade in black market water.

Inevitably it is the vulnerable who are and will be most acutely affected by Jordan’s water shortages, particularly those in the refugee camps of Za’atari and Azraq.

What is more, destabilising Jordan’s ability to provide refuge for Syrians has the potential to trigger a mass movement of people towards Europe and create an immigration crisis across the continent and the UK.

The impacts of climate change are also exacerbating Jordan’s water scarcity issues. Rainfall has decreased and longer, hotter summers are shortening growing seasons for farmers.

I saw this for myself when visiting the site where John the Baptist is said to have baptised Jesus. Our guide showed us a spring near to where John the Baptist was thought to have lived. Up until very recently the water was still flowing, but that day it had completely run dry.

There are inspiring stories of Jordanians working hard to tackle the crisis, like Esraa Tarawneh, a female engineer who is developing hydrological and analytical modelling to predict changes in water patterns. There are also water conservation and education programmes run by UNICEF that are making a difference, but central to the country’s strategy for responding to the crisis is the need for investment in critical infrastructure.

There is a plan to build a desalination plant near Jordan’s only port of Aqaba, the so-called ‘National Conveyance Project’, where desalination would allow seawater to be used for drinking, irrigation or industrial purposes.

Once treated, water would be pumped to Amman from the Aqaba plant via a 450km pipeline using renewable energy.

But uncertainty around the project is creeping in. The deadline for capital funders to bid for the project has been pushed back, and global supply disruption and inflation are said to be impacting investor confidence over the financial viability of the project.

So what else can Jordan do? In the past it has turned towards Israel for support with tackling water resources issues.

The so-called Red-Sea-Dead-Sea canal was intended to transfer seawater to the Dead Sea and generate hydroelectric power. However, as well as significant environmental concerns associated with the canal, it was hampered by governmental issues in Israel and an increase in diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

It is not a stretch to foresee similar hurdles for a current proposal, where Jordan would build a massive solar farm that will generate energy for Israel in return for desalinated water. Although a letter of intent has been signed, the current political climate in Israel and tensions within the region means that this is far from a done deal.

There is hope on the horizon in the form of a recent announcement from the World Bank, which has approved US$250 million to upgrade Jordan’s water distribution networks, and international commitments to support the costs of the National Conveyance Project.

But some say the problems are baked in. It is too late. The effect of climate change is already apparent, people are already facing water rationing and the infrastructure required will take too long to deliver.

I disagree; these factors just mean the international community must act promptly and demonstrate it is committed to helping deliver the infrastructure Jordan needs.

The humanitarian, economic and geopolitical impacts of Jordan’s water crisis are potentially huge, so helping Jordan to keep the taps running has never been more critical.