Climate change multiplies threats to global security

Climate change is a ‘threat multiplier’, exacerbating risks to global prosperity and security. As the world warms, new geopolitical flashpoints are emerging while existing challenges such as poverty, conflict and migration are intensifying. How the world’s two largest emitters, China and the US, deal with climate change and its related impacts, and how quickly, will shape the international agenda in this decade and those to come.

When I first coined this phrase with the US Generals and Admirals of the CNA Military Advisory Board in 2007, we lived in the midst of the War on Terror, with NATO troops deployed to Afghanistan, in a world pre- Paris Agreement and pre- the global financial crisis. Since then, climate change’s ability to exacerbate existing threats – driving social, economic and geopolitical instabilities – has become even more acute. Around the world nations have rallied to boost climate action, but there is much more to do, particularly in regard to its impact on developing countries.

For the most vulnerable nations, climate change is not a distant threat, it is a current enemy. Many countries on its frontline are often among the world’s poorest and least able to adapt, despite their carbon footprint being the smallest. Climate change could wipe out 15% of Africa’s GDP by 2030, resulting in an additional 100 million people in extreme poverty by the end of the decade, yet the continent only produces 2-3% of global emissions. Women also commonly face higher risks and greater burdens: the majority of the world’s poor are women and women dominate global food production, yet they own less than 10% of the land. The injustice is stark.

At COP27 significant progress was made to boost adaptation to scale up resilience for climate-vulnerable countries, with new pledges totaling more than USD 230 million. Incoming COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber is showing strong leadership in encouraging nations to ramp up investments ‘across every area of decarbonisation’, and the UK and US have an opportunity to leverage their climate leadership to promote more action on these commitments – particularly in mobilizing climate finance to improve resilience, striving to encourage allies to meet the $100 billion a year commitment and to boost private finance.

Many climate-vulnerable countries often also face other challenges such as conflict, poor governance, state instability and resource insecurity, threats which are increasingly amplified by climate change.

Accelerated by both droughts and flooding, access to clean water and arable land can fuel local resource competition and spark conflict in areas already under stress in the developing world. Instability also causes volatility in the prices of fertilizer, raw materials and energy, triggering price spikes and potential disruption to supply chains, further increasing the cost of essential resources. Progress in global health is also under pressure as malnutrition increases and water- and vector-borne diseases are on the rise.

Millions of people risk being displaced by floods and droughts, such as in Bangladesh, a country that is itself hosting Rohingya refugees fleeing violence from neighboring Myanmar, where it is estimated that by 2050 one in every seven people are likely to be displaced by climate change.

Weak governance is also being tested by the influence of hostile actors. In Somalia, the ongoing conflict between government forces and Al Shabab militants increases the starvation threat as citizens have no access to aid.

A more stable climate will reduce the influence of hostile actors in these regions, reduce tensions, enhance development and lower migration. Boosting homegrown, resilient food, health and energy systems in developing countries would not only be a smart investment for the most vulnerable regions to enhance development and to boost their ability to grow and trade effectively, but good for our own security too. But this will not be successful if they are seen as a pawn in the geostrategic competition between China and the West.

While the US stood ‘at the pinnacle of world power’, when Churchill gave his seminal 1946 speech in Missouri, today it is adjusting to a world that is sharpening its focus towards the Indo-Pacific region while also restoring democracy and freedom in Europe where Putin has launched an unlawful war against sovereign Ukraine. Geopolitical competition over the energy transition between the world’s two largest emitters, China and the US, will shape the international order and the impact of climate-related threats across the whole world, particularly the developing world. Europe is accelerating its own energy transition as it frees itself from Russian oil and gas. The US has made historic investments in clean energy and climate resilience through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act.

Geostrategic competition is now shifting towards a new natural resource: critical minerals.

Geostrategic competition is now shifting towards a new natural resource: critical minerals. The International Energy Agency’s ‘Role of Critical Minerals’ report found that achieving net zero will require up to six times more critical minerals in 2040 than today for the rollout of green technologies like renewable energy and electric vehicles. Competition over resources such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths is heating up, but the West is already playing catch up. China dominates the global supply chain for many of the world’s critical minerals, including mining, refining, separation, and processing, but there is an opportunity, if we move fast, for a UK-US partnership on critical minerals. We must diversify our supply chains to reduce China’s leverage over the global market and secure our own domestic industries and energy supply and to boost economic prosperity and reduce the threat to democracies around the world.

Climate change’s role as a threat multiplier is clearly demonstrated by today’s geopolitical realities. As it continues to amplify threats to state stability and food and energy security, and as it tests the resilience of climate-vulnerable countries, the need for global climate action with the US and UK leading from the front has never been greater.