Development in the Pre War Era
A powerful new report from the Coalition for Global Prosperity, authored by researcher Thomas Nurcombe and endorsed by former Defence Secretary The Rt Hon Grant Shapps, has sounded the alarm about an increasingly unstable global landscape. Titled "Development in the Pre-War Era," the report makes the case for reinvigorating international development as a cornerstone of UK foreign and security policy to counteract the rising influence of autocratic regimes.
Drawing on expert insights from diplomats, academics, and security professionals, the report highlights a dangerous alignment between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. This "axis of autocracies" seeks to undermine the rules-based international order and reshape global norms in their image by exploiting, coercing and courting the developing world, posing significant security threats to the UK and broader West.
"If we fail to act decisively to prevent this new axis of autocracies from shaping a new global order in their image, the UK will suffer the consequences … In this pre-war era, development is not just a moral duty, it is a strategic necessity. It is an investment against hostile actors looking to overturn the rules-based order, an investment for our own security, and an investment for our own prosperity.”
— The Rt Hon Grant Shapps, former Secretary of State for Defence, in his foreword
Key findings of the report include:
A Pre-War Era: The world is entering its most unstable phase in decades, with conflicts in Ukraine, tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and proxy warfare in the Middle East threatening to escalate into larger global confrontations.
Rising Autocratic Influence: Russia, China, and Iran are increasingly leveraging economic statecraft and development crises in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East to erode Western influence, achieve their foreign policy goals and dominate their respective regions.
The Role of UK Development: International development is not just a moral imperative but a strategic necessity. By addressing root causes of instability—poverty, weak governance, and corruption—the UK can counteract these malign influences and safeguard its own security and prosperity.
The report urges the UK Government to:
Increase defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP and commit at least 20% of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to governance and civil society initiatives.
Prioritise fragile and conflict-affected states, ensuring 60% of bilateral ODA is directed to these regions.
Work with global allies to counter Chinese economic statecraft by championing alternatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII).
Establish mechanisms to strengthen debt and climate finance frameworks, making the UK a more appealing partner for developing nations.
In Conversation with Grant Shapps and Report Launch at Rusi
At the launch of our newest report ‘Development in the Pre-War Era’, foreword author and former Secretary of State for Defence, The Rt Hon Grant Shapps discusses threats to the rules-based international order, the new axis of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and how the UK can use development to combat their rising influence.
“The devastating consequences of Russian foreign policy are clear for all to see. The UK has stood resolutely with Ukraine, ensuring that Putin’s tyranny cannot undermine international norms. We must look widely to prevent Moscow, alongside its autocratic partners in Beijing and Tehran, from reshaping the world to suit their agenda. Turning a blind eye and not taking decisive steps would only heighten the vulnerability of both UK and global security. Strong defence and a commitment to international development will demonstrate our unwavering dedication to protecting our values and interests in their most challenging moments.”
Dame Caroline Dinenage MP, Conservative Member of Parliament for Gosport and Chair of the Culture, Media and Sport Committee
“The global situation is extremely volatile. Russia, China, and Iran are all targeting the UK, determined to undermine our values and security. We must act fast and decisively by strengthening our defence and security. International development can and must align with these efforts to create a stronger, more prosperous, and more secure UK.
It’s far more critical than just feeling good for helping others in countries less fortunate. International development is a cornerstone of our security strategy, addressing the root causes of instability that force people to migrate or seek support from hostile actors. By fostering resilience and economic opportunity in vulnerable states, we reduce the risk of displacement and counter the harmful influence of those who seek to exploit global challenges for their geopolitical gain.”
David Reed MP, Conservative Member of Parliament for Exmouth and Exeter East and Member of the International Development Committee
As we look across the world today, it is clear we are living in more uncertain, more volatile, and more dangerous times. The threats posed by hostile states, including Russia, China, and Iran, seek to undermine the values that underpin our democracy. And, by virtue of our adversaries' more unified approach, the stakes could not be higher for the West.
In combatting these threats, it is crucial that UK harnesses the role international development programmes as part of its wider foreign and national security policies. As always, the Coalition for Global Prosperity is proving to be a key thought generator, through their careful analysis and robust critique of the challenges and opportunities open to UK political leaders.”
Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst MP, Conservative Member of Parliament for Solihull West and Shirley
“This report arrives in the context of persistent threat from China, Russia and Iran. Only last week the Defence Secretary told Parliament he deployed a hunter-killer submarine to surface next to a Russian spy boat in UK waters. Further afield our adversaries exploit weak governance and poverty to gain a foothold in developing nations. CGP's intervention outlines how UK development now can save us billions in potential war efforts further down the line."
Fred Thomas, Labour Member of Parliament for Plymouth Moor View