Push and Pull: Will action on the climate address the refugee crisis?

The Coalition for Global Prosperity makes the case for development aid as a key lever in stopping irregular migration by addressing the issue at source, helping to manage the problem long before it reaches British shores. Now, deep in the throes of a general election campaign where immigration is still one of the most important issues facing the country according to voters, and on World Refugee Day 2024, we revisit how the UK can help actively address some of the biggest global push factors for irregular migration.

A contentious issue in public discourse, irregular migration has all the hallmarks of a slow burn crisis. Its long-term drivers, including conflicts, climate change, political instability and economic disparities, threaten to make the scale of the problem worse. Deep-rooted, devilishly hard to respond to, and intrinsically linked to wider political challenges. Global challenges with these characteristics are far less headline grabbing than the short-term crises they cause.

As the UK looks towards a new Government in time for a summer spike in small boat crossings, it is imperative that those who win the honour of leading us are prepared to proactively address issues with sustainable long-term plans.

This election campaign has made clear that a secure border, controlled immigration levels and an orderly asylum process, is central to maintaining public trust. The UK’s development offer can and should play a core role in the effective, long-term and sustainable response to our current irregular migration challenges.

Taking back control of our borders includes responding to the challenges that compel people to move within their country of origin. Effectively mitigating the ‘push’ factors within migrants’ origin countries is equally, if not more, important than addressing ‘pull’ factors to create a sustainable basis for migration in the long-term.

Alongside political instability and conflict, it is also clear that the effects of climate change are increasingly affecting migratory flows. Extreme weather events are already one of the leading causes of forced displacement globally with The World Bank’s 2021 report estimating that climate change could force an additional 216 million people to leave their homes by 2050.

Against the backdrop of a world that has become increasingly hostile, the Council on Geostrategy argued in their 2023 report that climate change is likely to be an exacerbating factor for the other drivers of irregular migration; a threat multiplier for triggers including instability, conflict and resource scarcity.

Considering the key drivers of irregular migration, it is clear that aid and development can and should play a significant role in our response. They cannot single handedly solve the challenges in its entirety, but they can address the factors that deterrence policies neglect.

By investing in poverty alleviation and creating better economic opportunities for a generation of young people in search of work, the UK’s aid budget and development expertise can prevent the “brain drain” from developing countries, and increase countries internal stability and resilience to the shocks that trigger displacement and outflows.

These are steps which will help Britain respond to the challenge of irregular migration in a way that is robust, but also takes seriously the very real causes which drive people to undertake perilous journeys and aims to address these.

The 2023 UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Global Trends report places the number of displaced people at more than 117 million people worldwide - the highest number of people forcibly displaced since World War II.

It is a global challenge and it requires a global solution but the UK's aid and development work is one important tool for tackling what will remain one of the defining challenges of the 21st century.

To read more about how UK Aid can help stop irregular migration: