The race to net zero

It is all too easy to slip into a cycle of despair when considering the state of the global fight against climate change. Each new report seems to paint an ever bleaker picture of the impact of rising temperatures and the challenge that the world faces to cut emissions at the required pace. There is no doubt that we need to act faster.

But focusing only on the scale of the challenge before us belies the impressive progress that is happening. While global emissions have not yet peaked, the UK and the USA are amongst those nations leading the way to net zero, with the UK slashing emissions by nearly half since 1990 while the USA has seen steady cuts since 2007.

This has not happened by accident. Perhaps the greatest reason we have for optimism is the way that economic forces are rowing in behind climate action, with billions being invested in the clean industries and technologies of the future. In almost every sector, we already have the solutions we need - the challenge is to scale them and reduce their costs. With fossil fuel prices surging across the world, the green option is increasingly the economic option – a trend that is only set to continue.

But this green revolution is imbalanced. While richer countries scramble to get ahead in the race to net zero, many others fear being left behind. Most nations in the Global South contribute a tiny fraction of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Yet they are far more likely to suffer the effects of rising temperatures through natural disasters, food insecurity and rising sea levels. Exorbitant capital costs and a lack of proper grid infrastructure make the power systems of the future a pipe dream for much of the world.

This is not something that we can afford to ignore. Adaptation and mitigation of climate change are not a ‘nice to have’ – without them, rising temperatures will unwind decades of progress on hunger and poverty alleviation. When climate change causes crops to fail or makes land uninhabitable, this directly impacts the health and prosperity of millions of people.

The UK and the USA recognise our clear moral duty, with both nations pledging to double previous spending on international climate finance in the coming years. With a longstanding global commitment of $100bn a year still not reached, let alone exceeded, both governments have a vital role to play in mobilising much more public and private investment in the green transition and adaptation in the Global South.

And this is not just a moral mission: it also has great bearing on the economic and foreign policy of the Transatlantic Alliance too. Our nations are at the forefront of global science and technology, trade, and finance – we have the key tools to export our own successes across the world, building more stable and prosperous trading and investment partners as we do so. There would be no better way for the USA to eschew the criticisms of the Inflation Reduction Act for being protectionist than for it to go hand in hand with significant investment in green capital overseas.

If we fail to act, others will not. For many years now, the West has had serious concerns about the malign influence of China and its Belt and Road Initiative, which has poured billions into infrastructure in the world’s poorest countries. The Build Back Better World initiative, launched at the G7 in 2021, was an encouraging start, with a model that would meet climate and development needs together. But at a time of serious economic challenges at home, the UK and USA have much work to do to realise these good intentions.

Both nations have played a vital role in the Just Energy Transition Partnerships agreed with South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, which will see billions of public and private investment in clean energy in some of the most coal-intensive economies on Earth. These deals represent a replicable model of strategic investment that, done right, supports the trifecta of building economic prosperity and geopolitical influence, as well as strengthening climate resilience. The Transatlantic Alliance should continue to secure many more such agreements with key countries.

And this is not just a moral mission: it also has great bearing on the economic and foreign policy of the Transatlantic Alliance too.

It has become a cliche to say that climate change is a global challenge requiring a global solution, but we simply will not stave off the worst effects of rising temperatures unless the whole world decarbonises fast enough. Despite the scale of the challenge, this is a huge opportunity too. For the sake of prosperity and the planet, the UK and USA should lead the way in taking it.