Climate change, conflict and consumption

Mainstream media has finally begun to highlight the accelerating worldwide environmental crises to the masses with raging fires, flash floods, earthquakes, and typhoons now a daily feature of the 6 o’clock news. The events are nothing new, but their frequency and increased prominence is.

According to the UN, the world is on track to reach a 2.8C temperature rise by the end of the century, far exceeding the aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 to 2C. It is therefore incomprehensible that world leaders are failing to recognise and prioritise a call to arms to combat the single most compelling conflict facing this and future generations with any meaningful alacrity. The greatest and most devastating battle of our days will not be an expansion of empire, a stampede of fortune seekers speculating for gold (metallic or liquid), or even a desire to embed religious ideology. It will be a life and death struggle to control safe and habitable land that can sustain our existence and provide for our expanding population. The next war will be over wheat and water.

Living in New Delhi in 2009 was my environmental and world security wake-up call. India’s annual prosperity is determined by the monsoon season and its arrival is timed to the day and hour. From June to September India receives 75% of its annual rainfall, which sustains its $3 trillion agriculture-dependent economy. So, imagine the devastation wreaked by a year when it simply never arrived followed by the next year of torrential rain that never stopped. In 2009 and 2010 this was the reality that led to devastating crop failure, starvation and, more significantly, mass movement of rural communities to the larger cities, already overwhelmed by population growth, a deficit in housing supply, insufficient health and community provision and a crumbling Victorian infrastructure.

Sound familiar? It should, because this is increasingly the situation we see emerging here in the UK and across Europe. We, as one of the most organised and affluent nations, appear to be unable to plan and implement medium to long term strategies that will deliver growth, and house, feed, nurture, protect or simply placate our increasingly worried and vocal populace whilst finding a balance with halting and actively reversing the damage inflicted by man to the natural environment that is fundamental to our continued existence.

Don’t get me wrong. I am no hessian wearing, mud hut living, Net Zero zealot that decries all development, demands a halt to progress and innovation and a return to cave dwelling. I am however a proud flag flyer for nature restoration, sustainable solutions, and resource security! That is why I am passionate about the work of the Conservative Environment Network, an independent forum that encourages informed debate, builds consensus, and champions market-based solutions.

Automation, digitalisation and expansion will be the driving forces that deliver new business opportunities, ensure they are faster and cheaper, and guarantee a competitive edge. But at what price? The industrial land planning and development global market report predicts that the current market of $12.23 billion will grow to $17.64 billion by 2027. That growth will accelerate our vast consumption of natural landscapes and feed our insatiable appetite for raw materials and minerals.

Material consumption has hit a record 100 billion tonnes a year with half that total made up of sand, clay, gravel, and cement used for building – making concrete the most consumed material in the world after water. It is from some of our most politically unstable regions that we source ‘conflict minerals’, such as tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, the staples of modern life used in the mobile phones, cars, and jewellery that we consume relentlessly. Conflict minerals that sustain violent armed groups, overthrow legitimate governments, underpin forced labour, embolden human rights abuses, and fund an insatiable international arms industry.

Mass consumption and modern production processes will result in further soil degradation, excessive water consumption, biodiversity loss, damage to ecosystems and climate change exacerbation. All of which will contribute to rising global temperatures that will, ultimately, see hundreds of millions of people displaced. By 2050, climate migration will significantly increase, with predictions ranging from 25 million to 1.2 billion people moving due to climate-related impacts. Irrespective of whether they are escaping the long-term effects of climate change related disasters, seeking relief from crushing poverty, fleeing war or persecution, or acting on a desire to improve their personal situation and economic prospects, this is already becoming a critical global upheaval issue and a real crisis for our species.

More needs to be done to demonstrate and communicate climate change as the most significant global security threat of our time. We must amplify the voices of security experts and those facing instability on the ground and impel the international community to avoid serious armed conflict and prevent the destabilisation of our societal structures and economies.

True leadership is not shaped by short term reaction to single issues, social media comment and political desperation. True leadership tunes out the white noise, pauses, reflects, and then boldly navigates a sound course through the most difficult waters. There is a wealth of untapped potential linked to more proactive environmentally sound investment in green technology, job creation, and energy independence that will deliver financial savings and enduring security. It is time for our leaders to galvanise, mobilise our intellectual armies, and commit resources. Now more than ever a collective effort is needed to identify the opportunities we must begin to enable today to ensure our long-term environmental security.