Prevention is better than cure

War in Ukraine. The threat of climate change and a depleted environment. The movement of people around the globe in search of safety and a better life. And the rise of politicians and movements that seek to undermine the international rules-based system put in place after the horror of the Second World War. Alongside economic crises and the lingering effects of Covid, there are the multiple challenges we face as a world.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unprovoked aggression. President Putin does not regard Ukraine as a real country. He thinks it’s part of Russia and that it is his destiny to claim it back. And he is prepared to pay a huge cost – lives lost in Ukraine and amongst his own forces – in pursuit of his war.

But he hugely underestimated both the determination of Ukraine to resist and the reaction of Europe and of the United States. He mistakenly thought that the West would be weak and divided. Instead, it has imposed far tougher sanctions than he could ever have imagined. Many countries, including the EU, are supplying Ukraine with weapons, Germany has announced an increase in defence expenditure, and Putin has managed to turn round public opinion in Finland and Sweden which now supports NATO membership.

The real lesson is that when we say ‘never again’, we think that our words will be enough. What we have learned from the last year is that there will always be people who are prepared to use force to try and get what they want, and that is why strong defence and unity are the best protection we have.

As if this wasn’t difficult enough, human-made climate change is upon us and will wreak huge damage if we do not speed up our efforts to reach a zero carbon future. We know what needs to be done, but there is, as yet, insufficient urgency in our efforts internationally. And we have to find a way of enabling everyone to make the changes that are required or else political forces who oppose taking action will get stronger.

We will need all the technology we can get to do so, despite some arguing – wrongly – that relying on it is a diversion from the task in hand. The development of technology shows that net zero change is possible, and through the US Inflation Reduction Act, President Biden will be investing huge sums of money in a low carbon future. The EU is now wrestling with how it is going to match this. Getting this right, however, is a huge economic opportunity which will help build prosperity.

If we wish to protect and advance the interests of our citizens in this century, then we will best do so by pooling our sovereignty with others.

The first two challenges – conflict and climate change – are the principal reason why we need to act collectively because failing to do so will result in a third challenge – much larger movements of people around the globe which no walls or fences will stop. When conflict breaks out, or it stops raining or it rains too much, human beings will do what they have always done – namely move in search of a better life. We will need international agreement to deal with this, and prevention is much better than cure.

Underlying all of this is the search for safety, sovereignty and control in a fast-changing world that occupies so much of modern political debate. I have witnessed much change for the better in my lifetime, and it has mainly come through people working together – within nations and beyond. That is why a ‘Sovereignty First’ policy – elevating an absolute principle above all else – will not help and is ultimately doomed to fail. If we wish to protect and advance the interests of our citizens in this century, then we will best do so by pooling our sovereignty with others. That is how you get progress in fighting climate change, agreeing international trade rules, standing up to threats to peace and security and ending conflicts. And that is why strengthening our international institutions and the rules-based system, rather than destroying them, is essential to building a better world for all.