Competing with an increasingly assertive and authoritarian China

Catherine West, Labour MP for Hornsey and Wood Green and Shadow Minister for Asia and the Pacific

As we enter the middle of the third decade of the twenty first century, the parameters of the geopolitical reality for the rest of the century looks set – a competition between the world’s sole remaining superpower from the 1945 world order, the United States, and a seemingly ever ascendent and an increasingly assertive and authoritarian China.

Notwithstanding the war in Ukraine, the impact of this competition and what it means for the rest of the world is by far the most discussed aspect of foreign policy. Britain’s role, and how we maximise our role for good, is a dominant theme covering aspects of ‘traditional’ foreign policy, like diplomacy and our defence posture, but also investment decisions, business confidence and security decisions taken at home. In the Asia Pacific region, China’s rise to global prominence is ever present and Beijing has become an increasingly powerful player not just in the Pacific Ocean region, but across South Asia, Africa and Latin America.

In doing so, Beijing is clearly committed to courting allies and partnerships in previously west-leaning countries encouraging nations to comply with its worldview. This has had many effects, including, for example, isolating Taiwan in global fora and on the world stage. In doing so Beijing is furthering its reach in the United Nations General Assembly, building a bloc of support among nations which can be counted on to vote in line with China’s interest or to abstain on areas where previously smaller nations would have voted in line with UK or US interests.

This presents a unique challenge to the UK, and to our partners not only in the region but also closer to home. It was not so long ago that China threatened Lithuania for its recognition of Taiwan. Further Chinese hostility to European allies has been seen following the election of President-elect Pavel of the Czech Republic and his decision to engage with Taiwanese politicians.

Although we have left the EU, we are and will always remain European, and it is our duty to be aware of and stand up to China where other nations have decided to formalise their recognition of Taiwan and are being threatened and bullied as a result.

Sadly, the record of this government in response to this increasing reach and diplomatic engagement by China has been disappointing. Despite much talk of an Indo-Pacific tilt and the Government’s own Integrated Review of foreign policy document, the government have overseen a shrinking diplomatic footprint in the strategically vital Asia Pacific region, with the number of British-based staff posted to key countries in the region – including the Pacific Island states, India, Pakistan, and indeed China itself – falling by up to 50% since 2014. We cannot hope to match the Chinese engagement in the region and protect our own influence and position on the world stage while we have such a muddled and incoherent approach and with fewer staff to do the hard diplomatic legwork which is required to reassert a positive UK presence in the region.

Similarly on development spend, the UK Government’s decision to cut ODA spending at a time when many countries are crying out for support is a major misstep, giving further power and influence to China and allowing them to entice countries in to further economic partnerships with Beijing, knowing that the UK’s footprint in both aid and diplomacy is shrinking at the exact time it is most needed.

In a further worrying sign of the Government’s complacency and lack of coherent strategy on the region in countering Chinese influence, the Foreign Office admitted publicly it did not know which world leaders from the region attended the funeral of the late Queen Elizabeth II in London, despite much heralded and adept decision making by the Australians and New Zealanders in offering military flights to leaders in the region who wished to attend. This was a missed opportunity to demonstrate British engagement and commitment to the region at a time when the world’s focus was on London and with the backdrop of serious and sustained engagement by China in Commonwealth states like the Solomon Islands, Fiji, and Sri Lanka.

But it does not have to be this way. The potential for the UK to be a force for good is there, and should be relentlessly pursued by the Government to maintain our global influence, support our allies, and check the evergrowing bloc of support for Beijing in the UN and in other global institutions, which risks bending and shaping international law to further their vision of the world.

There are examples of a better approach, and indeed it is the example of the new Labor Government in Australia which could demonstrate a pathway for better engagement by Britain in the region, offering a playbook on how to engage with China on issues of common concern while supercharging engagement with regional partners and, with AUKUS, taking the worst-case scenario seriously by investing in a robust defence posture. Under the stewardship of Prime Minister Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Australia has renewed its engagement in the region while not shying away from calling out China’s behaviour and overreach. Given our long-standing historical relationship, the similarities between our systems of government, and our new and groundbreaking partnership on AUKUS Australia is a partner we should redouble our commitment to, and it was welcome to see both Foreign Minister Wong and Defence Minister Marles visit London last month to underwrite Canberra’s relationship with the UK.

Given the threat posed by China in the decades ahead, and its own policy of courting support and partnership, this has to be seen as a political imperative.

Taken with our relationship with New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, this partnership and others like them could be the lynchpin of a renewed British engagement in the region with the UK cultivating our relationships more carefully. Given the threat posed by China in the decades ahead, and its own policy of courting support and partnership, this has to be seen as a political imperative. Anything else risks further undermining the UK’s global position and means the potential for the UK to be a force for good, a force for democracy and global liberty, for the rules based international order, would continue to be slowly eroded away

Read the collection’s other essays here.