A revived partnership with Middle East

The world moves quickly these days. Trends that in history may have taken centuries might now be accomplished in lifetimes.

Western expansion and influence, which occupied generations, has been combated by a resurgent East within easy memory. It has become axiomatic to refer to India, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and others as ‘powerhouses’ of one sort or another, and for the world to look increasingly in that direction for challenge, or perhaps confrontation.

But the shrewd analyst of global anatomy should not lightly fly over the sinews which constitute the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA). It may no longer be the centre of global political attention as in recent years, and it may not be at the back door of the US as it sets its sights elsewhere. But it is very much at Europe’s edge, a Europe in which the United Kingdom is still an integral element, and it will pay the UK and the US to work together in a revived relationship with old and loyal friends.

We have a long history in the region. It has not all been good, but we have learned lessons from that, and despite it we still have friends who value us- important in a competitive world in which there are no vacuums. If the UK and the US are less evident, then Russia, China, Iran and others, will simply be more so, which may not be comfortable in economic, security or governance terms.

In four key areas we might build this relationship.

Conflict reconciliation and recovery is desperately needed. The interventions of yesterday may be over, but the West’s security building of today and tomorrow, stationing both key and tripwire forces in various locations, should contribute to mutual assurance of preventing and avoiding the wars which have devastated the region in recent times. There is an urgent need to close the Syrian, Yemen and Libyan conflicts, and begin the economic reconstruction which is needed for long term recovery and stability. The West’s investment will be crucial, though there can be no shirking the difficulty of avoiding rewarding the perpetrators of war through normalisation.

There are strategic attempts to design a new Middle East, which we should encourage, though on terms. The Abraham Accords foresees a MENA where Israel plays a full part, with its technology and economy plugged into those of others. But these aims cannot fully be delivered, nor the Accords expanded, without a fair and just resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian crisis for so long at the heart of the region, and which has not gone away. Indeed, a new urgency is upon us now after a bad 2022 of increased violence, and flashpoints in 2023 emerging. Just imagine a MENA with this settled – the UK and US should be doing all it can now to avoid a new conflagration, and help realise a better vision.

Secondly, such a new vision would help fulfil the economic growth which will be vital for an expanding population. UN figures suggest that by 2050 half of the countries in MENA are expected to experience population increases of at least 50% from their 2015 levels. The UK and US engagement with improving education and economic infrastructure will pay dividends all round, with the English language such a key resource handed to us as a gift.

Thirdly, new economies will not be built by simply expanding the workforces in existing industries. The technological power of the UK and US is now being augmented by an increasingly assertive region, particularly the Gulf. The diversification from fossil fuels, which will be showcased at COP 28 in the Emirates later this year, is driving other high-tech, innovative investment from Riyadh to Doha. These states look to the UK and the US still as close partners, in science and higher education – and their progress has been phenomenal. The UAE went from its creation as a desert kingdom in 1971 to a space mission to Mars, in just 50 years.

The Middle East and North Africa is where the civilisations which built our modern world are still evident and remembered.

And fourthly, as mentioned above, in an increasingly competitive political world, where states from Tunisia to Iraq are engaged in the throes of democracy building, and the challenges associated with them, and where a spectrum of consent in Government, if not western democracy, is evident, the UK and US must have a role to play to prevent siren voices of authoritarianism suggesting they are the future. The calls simply for greater personal freedom in Iran, and the reaction to them, will not have been missed anywhere. If it is to be seen that oppression has no future, then those who would advocate it need challenge from those whose voices and actions are loud.

The Middle East and North Africa is where the civilisations which built our modern world are still evident and remembered. They are not just history, for renewed recognition by the UK and US of the opportunities of the region, is a springboard to the future.